Need Math help! Math experts welcome!

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dyingtolive

Well-known member
Hi guys, here goes...

I am computing the total % or total number of times something will happen in 5 tries if the percentage of it happening once is 5% and 25% and 40% for example.

The formula i used was to get .95 ^5 and .75 ^5 and .6 ^5

That equals .22 and .76 and .92 This computes the chance of it happening in 5 tries.

Now im wondering, is this thing accurate to compute the total number of times it will happen as well?

What I see is with 40%, the number is so close to 100%, and the higher it goes from 40%, the smaller the increase in total % compared to the range increased from 5% to 40%.

So how do I compute the accurate total number?

Let's say each time you win this 5% or 25% or 40% chance, you get 1 point,
How many points total will you get in 5 chances? Not a percentage but a real number.

Any help appreciated i suck at math but i need to figure this out... Thanks!
 
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dyingtolive

Well-known member
thanks for ur reply megalon!!

initially i tried doing that and then i realized that for low numbers like 5%, multiplying it by 5 was not accurate to measure the chances of landing within that 5% range. the chances were actually 22%! Pretty weird, anyway. For 25% as u can see its very close. 76%.

With 40%, the chances of landing within that range was 92%.

I am not even entirely sure what thsi formula does, if it measures landing within that range once only, or once or more.

So im guessing the answer is somehwere between the formula u gave and the formula i was using... Maybe average of the 2, i have no idea. Anyway, may need to make a simulation to find out....

Thanks again
 
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dyingtolive

Well-known member
hi! sory for the super late response, i wasnt able to keep track of the thread... super thanks for the reply!

i am studying it and sorta get some parts and but not totally but im still analyzing..
I dont understandt he combination(5,4) part. Whether you add these 2 then multiply it with the first digit/s?

what i really want to find out though is the number of times it will happen on average. Not a percentage but a number.

So my guess is for example of 5%:
1) Get % it will happen in 5 tries once:
.95 ^5 = 22%
2) Turn 22% into a number:
.22
3) Get % it will happen in 5 tries twice:
.22 * .22 ?????? = .04
4) Get % it will happen in 5 tries thrice, 4x and 5x.
.22^3 + .22^4 + .22 ^5 = .01 + .0004 + .00002
5) Add all those numbers

.27

Total number times it will happen in 5 tries

Is this correct??

Im feeling confident!
 
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